Russians Must Prepare for Lengthy Stand-Off with the United States (Izvestia, Russia)

Is there a solution to the Ukraine crisis short of all-out war in the heart of Europe? For Russia’s Izvestia, Sergei Karaganov, chairman of Russia’s Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, lays out the challenges for Moscow as it seeks to navigate difficult sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies, endure long enough to weaken the basis of U.S. power, and overcome what he perceives as Washington’s interference in Russia-European relations, the improvement of which, he argues, is the only hope for settling the Ukraine crisis without a shooting war.

For Izvestia, chairman of Russia’s Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergei Karaganov, lays out his prognosis for ties with the United States, and begins bu discussing what is motivating the United States to ‘destabilize key regions of the world’:

Political analyst Sergei Karaganov on when we can expect relations with the United States to improve – and why it is unlikely to happen in the near future.

 

It appears that Russian-American relations have entered a long period of confrontation.

 

Since 2012-2013, relations between the two countries have entered a dead-end of mutual recrimination. Analyses of the current interests of our elites indicate that things are only going to get worse. It is important, though, that the confrontation not lead to full-scale war.

 

First of all, let us consider the interests of the United States.

 

After apparent victory in the Cold War and nearly achieving the dream of a Pax Americana, America’s ruling elite sought to secure victory and even expand the their sphere of influence – including through the use of military force. In Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, however, the Americans and their allies suffered political defeat. The 2008-2009 economic crisis diminished faith in the liberal model of economic development associated with the United States and based on the Washington Consensus. The divisions within the American elite have exposed the ineffectiveness of their political model, and are yet another blow to American “soft power” – which is a willingness on the part of other countries to automatically follow America’s lead, imitate them and obey them.

 

Meanwhile, all of these failures have occurred with the backdrop in the 2000s of the rapid rise of “new” superpowers, particularly China.

 

Since 2000, America’s global position has plummeted from the heights that American’s conceit and the stupidity of everyone else who bought into the myth of the “sole superpower” had allowed it to reach.

 

By the end of the decade, key member of America’s leadership began to think that the U.S. should cut back on its overseas responsibilities and focus on domestic revival, which is precisely what Barack Obama has focused on. Yet all that has done is widen the rift, uniting hard-line conservatives and far-right religious groups with something approaching hatred. Faced with these pressures, it is likely that Obama will be forced to replace his revanchist team.

 

In the meantime, as usual proclaiming a policy aimed at maintaining peace and stability, the United States has de-facto adopted one of destabilizing key regions of the world. This it has done by undermining the remains of international law through the use of aggression and mass murder by drones. This is a significant if not radical change in American foreign policy. I am certain that for most members of the American foreign policy establishment, even the suspicion that the United States would adopt a policy of destabilization seems offensive, but such a course is obvious.

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